As the impact of the pandemic subsided, the decision of most companies to return to the conventional working system has significantly increased the demand for offices. During the pandemic, new Class A buildings, which were built with advanced technology and meet clean air standards, came to the fore. This has increased the interest of tenants in old buildings in such new office buildings with Class A features.
On the other hand, due to the earthquakes in our country, tenants in older buildings have increased their interest in new and earthquake-resistant office buildings. It should not be overlooked that new foreign companies entering the Turkish market and growing companies continue to create new demand.
Mevcut tabloda ekonominin temel prensibi olan ‘arz-talep’ ilişkisi ofis kiralarına da yansımış durumda. 2022 yılı, piyasanın ‘kiracı dostu’ olmaktan çıkıp dengeli piyasaya döndüğü yıl olmuştu; ancak 2023 yılını ‘mülk sahibi dostu’ olarak nitelendirmek yanlış olmaz. Geçen sene A sınıfı ofis binalarındaki boşluk oranı en düşük seviyeye geriledi ve kira seviyesi yükseliş eğilimini sürdürdü. İstanbul Merkezi İş Alanı Bölgesi’nde (MİA / Levent – Maslak) boşluk oranı 2021 yılının üçüncü çeyreğinde %18 idi. 2022 yılı üçüncü çeyrek boşluk oranı %12,4 olarak hesaplandı. 2023’ün üçüncü çeyreğinde ise bu rakam %11,1 olarak gerçekleşti. 2023 yılı sonu itibariyle boşluk oranı %10’a geriledi. Tahminlerimize göre bu rakam bu yılın sonunda %7 seviyesine kadar gerileyecek ve piyasada ciddi bir arz sıkıntısı gündeme gelecek. Bu durumda kira rakamları ciddi şekilde yukarı yönlü hareket edecektir.
As of the third quarter of 2023, the highest rent level realized in the CBD region was 38 USD/m²/month +KDV in USD terms and 850 TL in TL terms. By the end of 2023, rental prices increased to 38-40 USD/m²/month +VAT in USD and 1,000 - 1,100 TL/m²/month +VAT in TL.
So what can we expect in 2024?
In 2024, we anticipate that vacancy rates will continue to decline and rents will continue to increase due to this decline and limited supply. We think that we will close this year with 45 USD/m² and 47 USD/m² levels may be seen in 2025.
It is worth underlining that with the Istanbul International Finance Center (IFC) entering the market in mid-2023, the supply of Class A offices has reached 7.4 million square meters. IFC has approximately 1.3 million square meters of office supply, of which 550 thousand square meters will be offered to the market for rent, excluding government institutions. It should not be forgotten that the Istanbul International Finance Center is in demand not only from the domestic market but also from companies abroad.
It will emerge as the most important office project in Turkey for 2024 and beyond, especially in order to meet the office needs of companies coming from abroad and our resident companies. All these data show us that the "Zoom era", which played a leading role in keeping business uninterrupted during the pandemic, is starting to be left behind.